A victory over Ball State at noon Saturday on CBS Sports Network would likely send the RedHawks to Detroit next week to face Western Michigan at Ford Field for the conference crown.
Miami (6-5, 5-2 MAC) has dominated its rivalry with Ball State (4-7, 3-4 MAC) in recent years, but it has rarely been easy.
Miami coach Chuck Martin said the RedHawks enter the finale “worn out physically and mentally,” yet fully aware that their season’s entire arc — from early injuries to November resilience — has led to one more must-win moment at Yager Stadium.
Here are five things to know heading into Saturday’s matchup:
1. A must-win game with Detroit on deck
Miami’s postseason picture is straightforward — win, and the RedHawks‘ chances of making the MAC Championship Game for the second time in three seasons strengthen.
Martin emphasized the significance of earning last week’s win at Buffalo — a 37-20 comeback fueled by three defensive takeaways and freshman quarterback Thomas Gotkowski’s breakout performance — because it preserved Saturday’s stakes.
“Huge win,” Martin said. “Both teams had to win it to stay alive. … It obviously puts us in position that you’ve got another must-win coming up.”
Miami has navigated one of the MAC’s most grueling stretches — Western Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, Buffalo — and Martin acknowledged the physical toll on an injury-hit roster.
“We’re a mashed unit. We haven’t practiced with anybody in two weeks,” he said. “It’d be easy to take our foot off the gas. … But we’ve hung in there. We’ve stuck together.”
Here are the three scenarios for Miami — with a win Saturday — to reach the MAC Championship game, according to The MAC Sports Connection Podcast:
-WMU beats EMU + Ohio beats Buffalo + Miami beats Ball State + Toledo beats CMU → Miami wins 3-way tie on common opponents → in.
-WMU beats EMU + Buffalo beats Ohio + Miami beats Ball State + CMU beats Toledo → Miami wins tie vs CMU on common opponents → in.
-WMU beats EMU + Ohio beats Buffalo + Miami beats Ball State + CMU beats Toledo → Miami wins 3-way tie on common opponents → in.
2. The RedBird Rivalry
Although the rivalry dates back to 1931, the RedBird Rivalry trophy game was introduced only six seasons ago to commemorate the matchup between the schools roughly 70 miles apart.
Miami leads the all-time series 24-13-1, including 13-6-1 in Oxford. The RedHawks have won eight of the last nine meetings and the last five straight, but nearly every one of those games has come down to the closing minutes:
-2024: Ball State turned it over on downs at the Miami 42 trailing 27-21 with under two minutes remaining.
-2023: Kobe Hilton blocked a 42-yard field goal to preserve a 17-15 win.
-2022: Miami erased a 17-6 fourth-quarter deficit behind a 34-yard TD to reach the Bahamas Bowl.
-2021: A Sterling Weatherford end-zone INT halted Ball State at the Miami 19 in a 24-17 win.
-2020: Zach Kahn scored with 30 seconds left to secure a 38-31 victory.
In a conference Martin describes as “every week a dogfight,” history suggests this year’s meeting may again hinge on the final possession.
“Everybody’s playing hard-fought close games,” Martin said. “That’s our league. … And that’s this rivalry.”
3. Gotkowski’s emergence gives Miami new spark
Gotkowski delivered one of Miami’s most critical performances of the season last week, stepping off the bench to throw for 185 yards, account for two touchdowns and guide the RedHawks out of a mid-game lull at Buffalo.
Martin said both Gotkowski and senior Henry Hesson were expected to play, but the team “just rolled” once the freshman provided an offensive spark.
“He completed his first pass, made his first run, made his first mistake — it was all new to him,” Martin said. “But he protected the football, played efficiently and gave us a chance.”
Martin credited Gotkowski’s year-long preparation as a No. 3 quarterback who prepared every day “like a starter,” despite rarely receiving game reps.
“He loves being in the arena,” Martin said. “He believes in himself, and that’s leadership. Everybody knows he likes to compete.”
With nearly 10 days between games, Martin expects another jump from his young quarterback.
“Every day is an opportunity to learn,” he said. “He’ll continue to improve.”
4. Miami’s defense, special teams rebounded in big way
Miami’s coverage units were “really, really good” at Buffalo, Martin said. The RedHawks’ special teams flipped field position repeatedly.
“Our return units were awesome,” Martin said.
Defensively, Miami forced three takeaways, recorded six sacks and created short fields that led directly to scoring drives.
“To hold a team to 20 points on the road, you should win,” Martin said. “Tons of guys contributed. Not everyone was perfect, but everyone made plays.”
That defensive depth will be tested Saturday. Miami continues to battle injuries, including the loss of standout linebacker Corban Hondru.
“We feel terrible for Corban — (will miss) his play, his leadership,” Martin said. “But guys are stepping up. It’s been incredible.”
5. Senior Day sets an emotional stage
Saturday will be the final home appearance for 21 seniors, many of whom have lived the highs and lows of one of the most turbulent, yet resilient, seasons of Martin’s tenure.
From an 0–3 start, to a midseason surge, to critical injuries, to last week’s gut-check rally at Buffalo, Martin said the journey from January to late November has been “a crazy ride.”
“We’ve had incredibly high highs and lows that stink,” he said. “But on our lowest day, I wouldn’t trade being part of this organization for anything.”
Martin said the RedHawks are “beat down mentally and physically,” yet fully capable of one more push.
“It’s hard right now — treatment, practice, getting through the grind,” Martin said. “But guys are fighting like crazy to give us what they can. We’ve got one more week in our journey, and we’ve got to find a way.”
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